Topic > Agriculture in the rural areas of Madhya Pradesh

Madhya Pradesh is the second largest state in India and includes fifty districts distributed in eleven agro-climatic zones. Rural areas of Madhya Pradesh are primarily dependent on climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, making them highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. As of 2011, the state's total population was 72.6 million, of which 72.3 percent were rural. The rural population is highly dependent on primary sectors such as agriculture, horticulture, fishing, livestock, poultry and forestry for their livelihood. Due to climate change, these natural resource-based livelihoods are expected to be impacted more than other sectors. Water is a critical resource in the state as several regions like Bundelkhand suffer from the dual challenges of low rainfall and high runoff rates. The state is drained by rain-fed rivers and receives an average rainfall of 1,160 mm per year (MP Resource Atlas 2007, MPCST). Climate data analyzed by IITM Pune indicates a declining trend in rainfall in the state of MP from 1901 to 2000. Water availability in the state is declining. Therefore, the dependence on decreasing rainfall for renewal of water resources makes the state highly susceptible to changes in rainfall distribution and pattern. This irregular pattern ultimately affects groundwater resources. Groundwater extraction is already unsustainable (for reasons such as highly subsidized electricity and diesel pump sets), which increases insecurities in the future scenario. Agriculture is critical to the state's economy, accounting for approximately 45 percent of state domestic product (SDP). and more than 70% of the rural workforce. The state is classified into 11 agroclimatic zones and five with good climate by the end of the century. Average annual surface temperatures are projected to increase by 1-2°C, up to 3°C and even up to 5°C towards 2020, 2050 and 2080 respectively, especially in the northern part of Bundelkhand. The expected increase in minimum temperature is greater than the increase in maximum temperature. In the near future, there may not be much change in seasonal monsoon rainfall; however, it could increase by 5-10% towards 2050 and up to 20% towards 2080 compared to the baseline scenario. July precipitation is likely to decline, but other months reveal increased precipitation by the end of the century. The number of cyclonic disturbances may decrease in the future but the systems may be more intense with associated precipitation increases of 10-15 mm. The number of rainy days may decrease, but they may be more intense in the future.